New modeling from OHA predicts a decline in the number of new daily cases and hospitalizations into late September.
PORTLAND, Ore. — The Oregon Health Authority (OHA) reported 2,453 new cases of COVID-19 in its daily report Friday, as well as 21 new deaths. The state’s death toll is now 3,414.
Despite another day of high numbers, new modeling from OHA shows an optimistic forecast that predicts the state is emerging from the worst of the surge.
New modeling from OHA
OHA released an updated forecast Friday showing a projected decline in new daily cases and hospitalizations over the next few weeks.
The report found an infected person is now spreading virus to fewer than one person on average, leading to a decline in the number of new cases reported per day. At the current estimated level of transmission, the forecast’s most optimistic model estimates Oregon will see approximately 490 cases per 100,000 people, which comes out to an average of 1,460 daily cases and 80 hospitalizations per day from Sept. 15 to Sept. 28.
An alternate scenario that accounts for a return to in-person school and large public events this month predicts an estimated 635 cases per 100,000 people, or an average of 1,910 cases and 107 hospitalizations per day during the same two-week period.
Recent modeling from OHSU predicted Oregon hit the peak of the delta variant surge around Labor Day.
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Hospitalizations
There are 1,148 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Oregon, two fewer than Thursday. There are 280 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds, eight fewer than Thursday.
Across the state, OHA said there are 64 available adult ICU beds out of 644 total (10% availability) and 342 available adult non-ICU beds out of 4,371 (8% availability).
Cases and deaths
New cases were reported in the following Oregon counties:
Baker (37), Benton (38), Clackamas (139), Clatsop (7), Columbia (38), Coos (34), Crook (31), Curry (8), Deschutes (199), Douglas (129), Grant (12), Harney (11), Hood River (7), Jackson (156), Jefferson (23), Josephine (77), Klamath (44), Lake (12), Lane (248), Lincoln (42), Linn (173), Malheur (24), Marion (201), Morrow (8), Multnomah (246), Polk (67), Sherman (1), Tillamook (37), Umatilla (89), Union (43), Wallowa (9), Wasco (28), Washington (190) and Yamhill (45).
Oregon’s 3,395th COVID-19 death was a 63-year-old man from Crook County who tested positive on Sept. 1 and died on Sept. 9. Location of death is being confirmed. He had no underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 3,396th COVID-19 death was a 94-year-old woman from Crook County who tested positive on Aug. 23 and died on Sept. 8 at her residence. She had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 3,397th COVID-19 death was a 92-year-old woman from Clackamas County who tested positive on Aug. 25 and died on Sept. 9 at Legacy Meridian Park Medical Center. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,398th COVID-19 death was a 78-year-old man from Jackson County who tested positive on Aug. 13 and died on Sept. 8 at Asante Ashland Community Hospital. He had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 3,399th COVID-19 death was a 53-year-old woman from Jackson County who tested positive on Aug. 20 and died on Sept. 9 at Providence Medford Medical Center. She had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 3,400th COVID-19 death was a 76-year-old man from Lane County who tested positive on Aug. 30 and died on Sept. 9 at his residence. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,401st COVID-19 death was an 80-year-old man from Josephine County who tested positive on Sept. 8 and died on Sept. 8 at his residence. He had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 3,402nd COVID-19 death was an 81-year-old man from Josephine County who tested positive on Aug. 29 and died on Sept. 8 at his residence. He had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 3,403rd COVID-19 death was a 76-year-old man from Josephine County who tested positive on Aug. 23 and died on Sept. 8 at Asante Three Rivers Medical Center. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,404th COVID-19 death was a 63-year-old man from Josephine County who tested positive on Aug. 24 and died on Sept. 9 at Providence Medford Medical Center. He had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 3,405th COVID-19 death was a 47-year-old man from Josephine County who tested positive on Aug. 21 and died on Sept. 9 at Asante Three Rivers Medical Center. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,406th COVID-19 death was an 84-year-old man from Marion County who tested positive on Sept. 1 and died on Sept. 9 at Salem Hospital. He had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 3,407th COVID-19 death was a 66-year-old woman from Multnomah County who tested positive on Sept. 2 and died on Sept. 8 at Legacy Emanuel Medical Center. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,408th COVID-19 death was an 80-year-old woman from Multnomah County who tested positive on Aug. 30 and died on Sept. 4 at Adventist Medical Center. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,409th COVID-19 death was an 87-year-old woman from Multnomah County who tested positive on Aug. 31 and died on Sept. 6 at Adventist Medical Center. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,410th COVID-19 death was a 64-year-old man from Yamhill County who tested positive on Sept. 1 and died on Sept. 8 at Willamette Valley Medical Center. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,411th COVID-19 death was a 52-year-old woman from Yamhill County who tested positive on Aug. 24 and died on Aug. 27 at her residence. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,412th COVID-19 death was a 71-year-old man from Yamhill County who tested positive on Aug. 21 and died on Sept. 1 at Willamette Valley Medical Center. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
Oregon’s 3,413th COVID-19 death was a 74-year-old woman from Lincoln County who tested positive on Aug. 29 and died on Sept. 1 at Good Samaritan Regional Medical Center. She had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 3,414th COVID-19 death was a 79-year-old woman from Lincoln County who tested positive on Aug. 21 and died on Aug. 31 at Samaritan Pacific Communities Hospital. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.
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Vaccinations
As of Friday, 2,669,256 people in Oregon have had at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 2,428,279 people have completed a COVID-19 vaccine series.
The seven-day running average is now 7,549 doses per day.
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